
230
An
Economic History of the
English Poor
Law
total
net
out-migration from
the
southeast was 123,366 persons,
or
3.3%
of
the
average population
of the
southeastern counties during
the de-
cade.
37
The
out-migration rate was related
to the
rate
of
growth
of
farm
laborers' income.
The six
counties
in
which laborers' income either
de-
clined
or
increased
by
less than
4%
(Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk,
Cam-
bridge, Berkshire,
and
Wiltshire)
had a net
out-migration
of
47.7
per-
sons
per 1,000
population.
The
nine counties
in
which laborers' income
increased
by
more than 4%
had a net
out-migration
of
21.1
persons
per
1,000
population.
The
main destination
of
these migrants
was
London
(Hunt 1973: 281-4).
38
What effect
did
out-migration have
on the
supply
of
agricultural
la-
bor?
The
percentage change from 1841
to
1851
in the
number
of
adult
male agricultural laborers
in
each county
is
given
in
column
3 of
Table
7.8.
39
The southeast as a whole experienced
a
9.1%
increase in its agricul-
tural labor force from 1841
to
1851. Available price
and
output data
for
wheat suggest that
the
demand
for
farm labor declined during
the
1840s.
40
It is
therefore
no
wonder that farm laborers' earnings grew
slowly
or
declined during
the
decade. Assuming that
the
rural labor
market was
at or
near equilibrium
in
1841,
the
decline
in the
demand
for
37
The net out-migration rates in Table 7.8 are not comparable with Williamson's (1987)
estimates of gross out-migration rates presented above. Net out-migration equals gross
out-migration minus gross in-migration. The extent to which a county's net out-
migration rate understates its gross out-migration rate therefore depends on the extent
of gross in-migration to the county.
38
The importance of London as a destination for migrants from the rural south can be seen
by comparing data on the birthplaces of persons living in London in 1851 with birthplace
data for the major industrial region of England, the counties of Lancashire, Cheshire,
and the West Riding. Norfolk was not much farther from the West Riding than from
London, and yet there were only 2,008 Norfolk-born inhabitants of the West Riding in
1851 compared to 31,866 Norfolk-born Londoners. There were 2,627 Northampton-
born and 1,175 Oxford-born inhabitants of Lancashire, Cheshire, and the West Riding
compared to 10,511 and 16,092 inhabitants of London. According to E. H. Hunt
(1981:
157),
"London's attraction was probably due partly to accessibility - road and rail links
focused on the capital - and must have owed something also to the combination of
London's dominance in pre-industrial Britain and the tendency of migration streams to
perpetuate themselves. . . . Southern farm labourers and their offspring were in any
case unlikely to be particularly attracted by factory employment."
39
Occupational data in the 1841 census are given for ancient counties. In the 1851 census
data are given for registration counties. To adjust for differences in county boundaries, I
divided the number of agricultural laborers in 1851 by the ratio of the area of the
registration county to the area of the ancient county.
40
The price of wheat declined by 22.7% from 1838-42 to 1843-51 (Mitchell and Deane
1962:
488). Fairlie's (1969: 114) estimates of domestic wheat production suggest that
output was roughly constant from 1838 to 1844, increased in 1845 to a level 25% above
its 1838-44 level, then declined sharply after the repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846.
Annual wheat output in 1847-51 was 9% below output in 1838-44.