2 1 Introduction
Contemplating what is already achieved and what could be achieved in the near
future, we have come to a vision that shapes the spirit of the present study.
1.1.2 A Vision: Manufacturing in the Twenty-x
th
Century
Having a vision is not an end in itself. To have a vision means to analyse the past
and the present and try to extrapolate development in the future in order to foresee
it. The further away in the future one would like to (fore)see, the more of the past
would have to be analysed and the higher the probability that the foresight will
deviate from the reality when the considered time comes. Only those who (try to)
foresee the future can anticipate the events – good or bad – and forestall the
competition in dominating the market. To get the right vision is not easy, but even
a bad vision is better than no vision at all. So let us try to recall the past of
mechanical engineering, to review its present, to project ourselves into the twenty-
x
th
century of the millennium and have a look around. According to experience and
imagination, each of us will be able to imagine a very different situation. For
instance, at some point in the future the following could have happened:
I1. Material processing has become infinitely easy, cheap and fast, which
makes it affordable for everybody.
I2. There is rarely a need for pre-fabricated materials, because people have
mastered material transformation and improvement and can thus use the
surrounding widespread materials or reuse materials and the energy of
already unneeded equipment.
I3. Due to I1 and I2, (conventional) factories are not needed anymore and
are replaced by ubiquitous or home or in-place manufacturing.
I4. Due to I1, I2 and I3, warehouses are almost not needed and the use of
transport is significantly reduced, leading also to cheaper products and
to reduction of pollution.
I5. In such a situation, information and knowledge processing becomes the
most important factor in manufacturing.
How realistic is such a vision? If it is realistic, when could we (or the future
generations) expect it? In order to (try to) find answers to these questions, one has
to consider the known achievements of the science and technology and attempt to
estimate whether their further development can (at least theoretically) lead to
similar results. No matter what conclusion is drawn, the reality can be different.
Nevertheless, if we know what we would like to achieve, it is worth the effort to
make the first steps towards the accomplishment of our desires as soon as possible,
as well as to attempt to foresee and plan the remaining steps.
1.1.3 Preparing (the Technology) for the Twenty-x
th
Century
No doubt, the technology of the next centuries will be better than the current
technology. Nevertheless, despite different theories about giant acceleration (cf.
http://accelerating.org or http://www.accelerationwatch.com/), technological
singularity (http://www.singularitywatch.com/) and other predictions we do not
believe in sudden or very rapid changes in the technology. Even if they happen,
most of them usually have a limited influence on the technology as a whole and a
strong impact within some particular field. We firmly believe, though, in the
gradual but continuous improvement of science and technology altogether. For that