be interesting. The slope coefficient
ˆ
1
measures the predicted change in the probabil-
ity of success when x
1
increases by one unit.
In order to correctly interpret a linear probability model, we must know what con-
stitutes a “success.” Thus, it is a good idea to give the dependent variable a name that
describes the event y 1. As an example, let inlf (“in the labor force”) be a binary vari-
able indicating labor force participation by a married woman during 1975: inlf 1 if
the woman reports working for a wage outside the home at some point during the year,
and zero otherwise. We assume that labor force participation depends on other sources
of income, including husband’s earnings (nwifeinc, measured in thousands of dollars),
years of education (educ), past years of labor market experience (exper), age, number
of children less than six years old (kidslt6), and number of kids between 6 and 18 years
of age (kidsge6). Using the data from Mroz (1987), we estimate the following linear
probability model, where 428 of the 753 women in the sample report being in the labor
force at some point during 1975:
in
ˆ
lf (.586)(.0034)nwifeinc (.038)educ (.039)exper
in
ˆ
lf (.154) (.0014)nwifei (.007)educ (.006)exper
(.00060)exper
2
(.016)age (.262)kidslt6 (.0130)kidsge6
(.00018)exper(.002)age (.034)kidslt6 (.0132)kidsge6
n 753, R
2
.264.
(7.29)
Using the usual t statistics, all variables in (7.29) except kidsge6 are statistically signif-
icant, and all of the significant variables have the effects we would expect based on eco-
nomic theory (or common sense).
To interpret the estimates, we must remember that a change in the independent vari-
able changes the probability that inlf 1. For example, the coefficient on educ means
that, everything else in (7.29) held fixed, another year of education increases the prob-
ability of labor force participation by .038. If we take this equation literally, 10 more
years of education increases the probability of being in the labor force by .038(10)
.38, which is a pretty large increase in a probability. The relationship between the
probability of labor force participation and educ is plotted in Figure 7.3. The other
independent variables are fixed at the values nwifeinc 50, exper 5, age 30,
kidslt6 1, and kidsge6 0 for illustration purposes. The predicted probability is
negative until education equals 3.84 years. This should not cause too much concern
because, in this sample, no woman has less than five years of education. The largest
reported education is 17 years, and this leads to a predicted probability of .5. If we set
the other independent variables at different values, the range of predicted probabilities
would change. But the marginal effect of another year of education on the probability
of labor force participation is always .038.
The coefficient on nwifeinc implies that, if nwifeinc 10 (which means an
increase of $10,000), the probability that a woman is in the labor force falls by .034.
This is not an especially large effect given that an increase in income of $10,000 is very
significant in terms of 1975 dollars. Experience has been entered as a quadratic to allow
the effect of past experience to have a diminishing effect on the labor force participa-
tion probability. Holding other factors fixed, the estimated change in the probability is
approximated as .039 2(.0006)exper .039 .0012 exper. The point at which past
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