Подождите немного. Документ загружается.
0 10 20 30
−5
0
5
10
15
20
x 10
7
t (hours)
Sensitivities
∂y/∂ ρ
I
sV
sI
sC
V
sC
0 10 20 30
0
5
10
15
x 10
5
t
0 10 20 30
−2.5
−2
−1.5
−1
−0.5
0
0.5
x 10
5
t
Sensitivities
∂ y/∂ ρ
V
sV
sI
sC
V
sC
0 10 20 30
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
x 10
5
t
IFN, virus & pDC
s
τ
′
(t) =
∂
∂y
f(y, y
τ
, y
′
τ
; p)s
τ
(t) +
∂
∂y
τ
f(y, y
τ
, y
′
τ
; p)s
τ
(t − τ)
−
∂
∂y
τ
f(y, y
τ
, y
′
τ
; p)y
′
(t − τ) +
∂
∂τ
f(y, y
τ
, y
′
τ
; p).
t
F
p
F(p
⋆
, τ
⋆
) ≡ E
∂
2
∂p
2
L(p, τ)
p
⋆
,τ
⋆
.
S, s
τ
t
n
N
n=1
Z
Z :=
S(t
1
; p
⋆
, τ
⋆
) s
τ
(t
1
; p
⋆
, τ
⋆
)
S(t
2
; p
⋆
, τ
⋆
) s
τ
(t
2
; p
⋆
, τ
⋆
)
S(t
N
; p
⋆
, τ
⋆
) s
τ
(t
N
; p
⋆
, τ
⋆
)
Z
F := Z
T
Σ
y
Z.
Σ
p
Σ
p
> F
−1
.
S (t; p) ≡
∂
∂ (p)
(y(t; p)) ∈ R
M×L
.
Z
Z
l
1 6 l 6 L
ρ
V
1.1 0.52
ρ
I
0.00091 0.0004
θ 11.6 6.5
σ 2.1 × 10
−6
8.9 × 10
−7
d
0C
V
0.1 0.1
k
C
V
0.13 0.055
Z P
P = [P, Z
l
]
P = Z
l
l
b
Z = P(P
T
P)
−1
PZ;
R = Z −
b
Z
Z := R
P L
k
C
V
> σ > ρ
V
> ρ
I
> θ > d
0C
V
.
Φ(p
⋆
)
y(t
j
; p) y
j
µ = −2 ℓn L(
b
p) + 2(L + 1),
µ
c
= −2 ℓn L(
b
p) + 2(L + 1) +
2(L + 1)(L + 2)
ν − L − 2
,
ν = NM.
∆
MDL
= − ℓnL(
b
p) +
L
2
(
ν
2π
) +
(
Z
Ω
p
[F(p)]dp)
E
d
dt
C(t) = −d
C
· C(t), C(0) = C
0
.
G
d
dt
C(t) = −d
C
(t) · C(t),
d
dt
d
C
(t) = k
C
· d
C
(t).
Φ
E
= 1012, Φ
G
= 1012, µ
E
= 38, µ
G
= 30, ∆
E
= 22.1, ∆
G
= 19.5.
0 10 20 30 40
0
20
40
60
80
100
t
% pDC
data
y(t)
0 10 20 30 40
−10
0
20
40
60
80
100
t
% pDC
data
y(t)
d
C
(t)
p
N
N >
3
4
L
L
N
N ×L N
N ×L
p
p
ℓ
p
1
2
p
∗
ℓ
6 p
ℓ
6 2p
∗
ℓ
p
max
ℓ
+p
min
ℓ
2
N 500
I
t
≡
R
T
0
I(t)dt
p
I
t
N × (L + 1)
X = {X
l
}
l=L+1
l=1
C C
ij
X
i
X
j
C
ij
=
(L + 1)
P
X
k
i
X
k
j
−
P
X
k
i
P
X
k
j
q
(L + 1)
P
(X
k
i
)
2
− (
P
X
k
i
)
2
q
(L + 1)
P
(X
k
j
)
2
− (
P
X
k
j
)
2
I
t
I
t
p
ℓ
C
−1
σ
p
l
I
t
= −C
l(L+1)
/(C
ll
C
(L+1)(L+1)
)
1
2
.
I
t
I
t
τ
V
I
t
I
t
I
t
I
t
ρ
I
0.3917 σ
V
0.0684 τ
I
−0.0464
ρ
V
−0.0007 d
0c
0.0151 τ
v
−0.0947
θ 0.0286 k
c
0.0266 f
i
0.3154
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
x 10
5
τ
v
Itot
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
x 10
5
τ
i
Itot
I
t
I
t
τ
V
, I
t
= 6 × 10
5 −0.3·τ
V
I
t
τ
I
I
t
= 90000 + 4500 ·τ
V
.
ρ
I
f
i