Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The black swan
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To Benoît Mandelbrot,
a
Greek
among Romans
CONTENTS
Prologue
xvii
On the Plumage of Birds
xvii
What
You Do Not Know
xix
Experts
and "Empty Suits"
XX
Learning
to
Learn
xxi
A
New Kind of
Ingratitude
xxii
Life
Is Very
Unusual
xxiv
Plato and the
Nerd
XXV
Too
Dull to Write About
xxvi
The Bottom Line
xxvii
Chapters
Map
xxviii
PART
ONE:
UMBERTO
ECO'S
ANTILIBRARY,
OR HOW
WE
SEEK
VALIDATION
1
Chapter
1
:
The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic 3
Anatomy of a Black Swan 3
On Walking Walks 6
"Paradise"
Evaporated
7
The
Starred
Night 7
History and the Triplet of Opacity 8
Nobody
Knows What's
Going
On 9
History
Does
Not
Crawl,
It
Jumps
10
x
CONTENTS
Dear
Diary: On History
Running
Backward 12
Education in a Taxicab 14
Clusters
15
Where Is the Show? 17
8
3
/4
Lbs
Later
18
The Four-Letter Word
of
Independence
20
Limousine Philosopher 21
Chapter
2:
Yevgenia's
Black
Swan 23
Chapter
3: The Speculator and the Prostitute 26
The Best
(Worst)
Advice
26
Beware
the
Scalable
28
The
Advent
of Scalability 29
Scalability
and
Globalization
31
Travels
Inside
Mediocristan
32
The Strange
Country
of
Extremistan 33
Extremistan and Knowledge 34
Wild and Mild 35
The
Tyranny
of the Accident 35
Chapter
4: One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker 38
How to
Learn
from
the
Turkey
40
Trained
to Be Dull 43
A
Black
Swan Is Relative to Knowledge 44
A Brief
History
of the Black
Swan
Problem
45
Sextus
the (Alas) Empirical 46
Algazel 47
The Skeptic, Friend of Religion 48
J
Don't
Want
to Be a Turkey 49
They
Want
to Live in Mediocristan 49
Chapter
5: Confirmation Shmonfirmation! 51
Zoogles
Are Not All
Boogies
53
Evidence 55
Negative
Empiricism
56
Counting to Three 58
Saw Another Red
Mini!
59
Not Everything
Back
to Mediocristan
Chapter
6: The
Narrative
Fallacy
On the
Causes
of My
Rejection
of
Causes
Splitting
Brains
A Little More Dopamine
Andrey
Nikolayevich's Rule
A Better Way to Die
Remembrance
of
Things
Not
Quite
Past
The Madman's Narrative
Narrative and Therapy
To Be
Wrong
with
Infinite
Precision
Dispassionate Science
The
Sensational
and the Black
Swan
Black
Swan Blindness
The Pull of the Sensational
The
Shortcuts
Beware
the Brain
How to
Avert
the Narrative Fallacy
Chapter
7: Living in the
Antechamber
of
Hope
Peer
Cruelty
Where the Relevant Is the Sensational
Nonlinearities
Process
over Results
Human
Nature, Happiness, and
Lumpy
Rewards
The Antechamber of Hope
Inebriated
by Hope
The Sweet Trap
of
Anticipation
When You Need the Bastiani Fortress
El
desierto
de los
târtaros
Bleed
or Blowup
Chapter
8:
Giacomo
Casanova's
Unfailing Luck:
The
Problem of Silent
Evidence
The
Story
of the
Drowned
Worshippers
The
Cemetery
of
Letters
xii
CONTENTS
How
to
Become
a
Millionaire
in Ten
Steps
A
Health Club for Rats
Vicious Bias
More Hidden Applications
The Evolution
of
the Swimmer's Body
What You See and What You Don't See
Doctors
The
Teflon-style Protection of Giacomo Casanova
"I
Am a
Risk Taker"
I
Am a
Black
Swan: The Anthropic
Bias
The Cosmetic Because
Chapter
9: The
Ludic
Fallacy, or
The Uncertainty
of the Nerd
Fat
Tony
Non-Brooklyn
John
Lunch at Lake Como
The Uncertainty
of
the Nerd
Gambling
with the
Wrong Dice
Wrapping
Up Part One
The Cosmetic Rises
to the
Surface
Distance from Primates
PART
TWO: WE
JUST
CAN'T
PREDICT
From
Yogi
Berra
to
Henri Poincaré
Chapter
10: The Scandal of
Prediction
On the Vagueness of Catherine's Lover Count
Black
Swan Blindness Redux
Guessing
and
Predicting
Information Is Bad for Knowledge
The
Expert Problem, or the Tragedy of the Empty Suit
What Moves
and
What Does
Not
Move
How
to
Have
the
Last Laugh
Events
Are
Outlandish
Herding Like Cattle
I
Was "Almost"
Right
Reality? What
For?
"Other Than That," It Was Okay
CONTENTS
xiii
The Beauty of Technology: Excel Spreadsheets 158
The Character
of
Prediction Errors 159
Don't
Cross
a
River
if It Is (on
Average)
Four
Feet
Deep
160
Get Another Job 163
At
JFK
163
Chapter
11
:
How to Look for
Bird
Poop 165
How to
Look
for
Bird
Poop
165
Inadvertent Discoveries 166
A Solution
Waiting
for a Problem 169
Keep
Searching 170
How to
Predict
Your
Predictions!
171
The Nth
Billiard
Ball 174
Third Republic-Style Decorum 174
The Three Body Problem 176
They Still Ignore Hayek 179
How Not to Be a Nerd 181
A
cademic
Libertarianism 183
Prediction and
Free
Will 183
The
Grueness
of
Emerald
185
That
Great
Anticipation
Machine
189
Chapter
12:
Epistemocracy,
a
Dream
190
Monsieur de Montaigne, Epistemocrat 191
Epistemocracy 192
The
Past's
Past,
and the
Past's
Future
193
Prediction, Misprediction, and Happiness 194
Helenus and the Reverse Prophecies 195
The
Melting
Ice Cube 196
Once Again, Incomplete Information 197
What
They
Call
Knowledge 198
Chapter
13:
Appelles
the Painter, or
What
Do You Do if You
Cannot
Predict? 201
Advice
Is
Cheap,
Very
Cheap
201
Being a
Fool
in the
Right
Places
203
Be
Prepared
203
The
Idea
of
Positive
Accident
203
Volatility
and Risk
of
Black
Swan
204
xiv
CONTENTS
Barbell
Strategy
"Nobody Knows
Anything"
The Great
Asymmetry
PART
THREE:
THOSE
GRAY SWANS
OF
EXTREMISTAN
Chapter
14:
From Mediocristan
to
Extremistan,
and Back
The World
Is
Unfair
The Matthew Effect
Lingua Franca
Ideas
and
Contagions
Nobody Is
Safe
in Extremistan
A Brooklyn Frenchman
The Long Tail
Naïve Globalization
Reversals
Away from Extremistan
Chapter
15: The
Bell Curve, That
Great Intellectual
Fraud
The
Gaussian and the Mandelbrotian
The Increase
in the
Decrease
The Mandelbrotian
What
to
Remember
Inequality
Extremistan
and the
80/20 Rule
Grass
and
Trees
How Coffee Drinking
Can Be
Safe
Love
of
Certainties
How
to
Cause Catastrophes
Quételet's Average Monster
Golden
Mediocrity
God's
Error
Poincaré
to the
Rescue
Eliminating Unfair Influence
"The Greeks Would Have Deified
It"
"Yes/No"
Only
Please
A
(Literary) Thought Experiment on Where the
Bell
Curve
Comes From
CONTENTS
xv
Those
Comforting
Assumptions
250
"The Ubiquity of the Gaussian" 251
Chapter
16: The Aesthetics of Randomness 253
The
Poet
of
Randomness
253
The
Platonicity
of
Triangles
256
The Geometry
of
Nature 256
Fractality 257
A Visual Approach to Extremistan/Mediocristan 259
Pearls
to Swine 260
The Logic of
Fractal
Randomness
(with
a
Warning)
262
The Problem
of
the Upper Bound 266
Beware
the Precision 266
The Water Puddle Revisited 267
From
Representation to Reality 268
Once
Again,
Beware
the
Forecasters
270
Once Again, a Happy Solution 270
Where
Is the
Gray
Swan?
272
Chapter
17: Locke's
Madmen,
or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places 274
Only
Fifty Years 275
The Clerks' Betrayal 275
Anyone
Can Become President 277
More Horror 278
Confirmation 281
It Was
Just
a Black
Swan
281
How to "Prove" Things 282
Chapter
18: The Uncertainty of the Phony 286
Ludic
Fallacy
Redux
286
Find
the Phony 287
Can Philosophers Be Dangerous to Society? 288
The Problem of Practice 289
How
Many
Wittgensteins
Can
Dance
on the
Head
of a
Pin?
289
Where Is Popper When You Need Him? 290
The Bishop and the
Analyst
291
Easier
Than You Think: The Problem of Decision Under Skepticism 292
xvi
CONTENTS
293
Chapter
19: Half and Half,
or
How
to
Get Even with the Black Swan
295
When Missing a Train Is Painless 297
The
End 297
Epilogue: Yevgenia's White Swans
299
Acknowledgments
301
Glossary
307
Notes
311
Bibliography
331
Index
359
PART
FOUR: THE
END