Money growth slowed and remained low after the middle eighties. In the five years ending in
1991, inflation and money growth were back at the levels of 1965 to 1969. Table
1 shows these and other periods.
U.S. Money Growth and Inflation
(compound annual rates in percent)
Money Growth Inflation
1960–64 2.8 1.6
1965–69 4.9 3.7
1970–74 6.0 6.0
1975–79 6.9 7.9
1980–84 6.6 7.3
1985–89 7.2 3.5
1987–91 4.4 3.8
There is a general association between money growth and inflation, but this relation is not
mechanical. Although average money growth remained high in the years from 1985 to 1989,
inflation fell. It shows that money growth in excess of output growth is a necessary but not the
only condition for inflation.
A second monetarist idea is the relation between inflation and the interest rates. When inflation
is going to be high, interest rates on the open market are high. In addition the foreign-exchange
value of a currency falls relative to more stable currencies. Interest rates in 1989 reached 8,000
percent a year in Yugoslavia. The Yugoslav dinar depreciated against the dollar from 0.03 to 1,
to 10.6 to 1. At the same time Brazilian currency (under various names) fell from 0.01 to 177.
The relation betweeen inflation and money growth is accounted for by the fact that high growth
of money causes a flight from money that makes the currency worthless. Governments can
control these effects of inflation for a short time, but they cannot do it permanently.
Currency depreciation or appreciation can be affected by numerous factors, such as growth of
defense spending, government purchases, tax rates, productivity growth at home and abroad,
and foreign decisions. Among them inflation is the most important: sustained inflation induces
depreciation, and disinflation induces appreciation, as monetarists say.
A third monetarist proposition concerns the relation between inflation and output. When inflation
increases, output often rises for a time above its trend rate. Deflation has the opposite effect,
and recessions follow.
These monetarist assumptions about inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and output, as
well as about their interrelation are now widely accepted by policymakers. Central bankers
follow guidelines for money growth, as they are well aware nowadays of the risks and the costs
of inflation, their principal task being the maintenance of price stability.
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