5 Historical method in civilization studies 87
of interests. When it becomes clear that long-range historical change can-
not be adequately interpreted in terms of the initiative of great men or of
direct geographical or racial causation; and when interpretation through
the evident moral level of the leading classes or even through immediate
economic interests proves to require explanation in turn of why the moral
level or the economic interests were as they were; then recourse can be
had to explanation by unevident but seminal cultural
traits.
These seminal
traits are supposed to have latent implications, not visible in the earlier
course of the society, the consequences of which unfold at a later state of
the society's development - if it may be assumed that the society has a
determinate course of development. Of the several sorts of seminal traits
invoked, the most commonly appealed to are inherited attitudes of mind,
evaluations of what is good and what bad. Thus in contrast to an Occiden-
tal inclination to rationalize and to reinvest is posited in an eternal Chi-
nese inclination to tao-ize and to become gentry; whereupon the failure of
the Chinese to carry through an industrial revolution is ascribed to their
successful families' not persisting in industry, but turning to other, more
honored, careers. (If the Chinese
had
been the first to fully industrialize,
they might have accounted for this also by their wealthy families' ten-
dency to become gentry - and so to sell their industries to ever new
blood, willing to innovate.)
I am sure that seminal traits may exist, though it is hard to pin them
down. But any evaluation of their historical effects must take into ac-
count the full ecological setting of a given generation - that is, all the
conditions (including both geographically and socially given resources
as well as current interrelations with other groups) that would determine
the effective advantage of various possible lines of action and hence of
attitudes that might be adopted. Ideally, one should determine the
points at which, under the given conditions, additional investment of
money, time, intellectual effort, etc., would yield diminishing returns.
Such calculations would have to take into account natural, man-made,
and demographic resources, technical and scientific alternatives avail-
able,
and social institutions as given to that generation, including pat-
terns of expectation, and what at that time these expectations depended
(that is, what it was that, at that time, might have altered them). Such a
listing would have to include the
consequences
of ancestors' attitudes; but
under the circumstances facing any given generation, the consequences
of those attitudes need not come to the same thing as the attitudes
themselves. Even the outcome, in a given setting, of child-raising
techniques - the area where an unconscious past seems likely to weigh
heaviest - can vary strongly.