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intelligence arrived from the Channel Islands that, far from coming home, d'Estaing's fleet had gone north from the
Lesser Antilles to San Domingo and probably from there to America. A merchantman spoken off Beachy Head
confirmed the news; and though North remained sceptical, Germain faced the reality: if d'Estaing was at San
Domingo, Jamaica was in peril.1 He was in no panic, for he doubted if the French troops at San Domingo could
conquer Jamaica before relief arrived; and in the meantime Grant and Byron could profit by d'Estaing's removal
from the Leeward Islands to take the offensive as they had been ordered.2
Nevertheless Germain anticipated an uproar at home. Urging Clinton to spare troops for the West Indies in the
winter, he added: 'Such a mark of attention to the security of the sugar colonies would give great pleasure to all
ranks in this country.' He was right. The London sugar interest was in arms against and clamouring for immediate
and effectual protection. The merchants reasoned from the loss of St Vincent and Grenada that a naval force alone
was not enough, and demanded a large reinforcement of troops for Jamaica. But the government's attempts to
soothe their fears ran into an embarrassing obstacle. When ships had been engaged and provisioned for a large
draft of recruits, Amherst disavowed the War Office's instructions, and stood the fire of the whole Cabinet by
refusing to send more than 200 men.3
Worse was to follow. On 8 October a report arrived from France that 6,000 troops were embarking for the
Caribbean. So alarmed was William Knox that he composed a memorandum for Germain which he headed
momentously 'Peace or War'. He argued that unless ships and troops could be spared immediately from home
defence to reinforce the West Indies England could not face another campaign against the combined power of the
Bourbons. If help could not be sent at once, there was only one thing to do: England must buy a separate peace
with Spain.4
Soon after he received this note, Germain made an overture to Madrid; and we shall see that Knox's paper
signalled an important strategic development. In the meantime preparations to help the islands began. A battalion
was ordered to embark in the next Jamaica convoy; and on the day after Knox had written his memorandum
Germain ordered the Admiralty to prepare 10,000 tons of shipping within a month; evidence perhaps that the
Leeward Islands were now thought too vulnerable to be left to Clinton's
1 Sandwich, III, 145; G 2786; CL, Clinton, 28 Sept. from de Grey; Sackville, II, 145; Knox, 162.
2 CL, Germain, 8 Oct. to Gov. Burt.
3 CL, Germain, 27 Sept. to Clinton; 30 Sept., 15 and 18 Oct. from West India interests; CO 137/75, ff. 64, 100,
12831; WO 34/232, p. 58; Knox, 163.
4 CL, Knox, IX, 28 (memo of 14 Oct.).0
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