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The Eastern Empire in the sixth century 111
But if the 530s saw widespread alarm caused by natural and human disasters,
the 540s saw the beginning of an epidemic of bubonic plague that was to last
for somewhat more than two centuries. According to Procopius, it originated
in Egypt, but it seems very likely that it travelled from the East along trade
routes, perhaps the silk route. It appeared in Constantinople in spring 542, and
had reached Antioch and Syria later in the same year. Huge numbers died: in
Constantinople it has been calculated that around 250,000 peopledied, perhaps
a little more than half the population. Few who caught the disease survived
(this few seems to have included Justinian himself), and those that died did so
quickly, within two or three days. Thereafter the plague seems to have declined
somewhat in virulence, but according to Evagrius, the church historian, there
was severe loss of life in the years 553/4, 568/9 and 583/4.Historians disagree
about the probable effect of the plague on the economic life of the Eastern
Empire: some
31
take its impact seriously, others, following a similar revision
in the estimate of the effects of the Black Death in the fourteenth century,
32
think that the effect of the plague has been exaggerated.
33
In the final months of his life, Justinian himself fell into heresy, the so-called
‘Julianist’ heresy of aphthartodocetism, an extreme form of Monophysitism
named after Julian, bishop of Halikarnassos (d. c.527), which he promulgated
by an edict. This is stated by Theophanes and by Eustratios, in his Life of
Eutychios, the patriarch of Constantinople, who was deposed for refusing to
accept Justinian’s new-found religious inclination, and is generally accepted by
historians. It has, however, been questioned by theologians, who cite evidence
for Justinian’s continued adherence to a Christology of two natures, together
with evidence that he was continuing to seek reconciliation between divided
Christians, not only with the ‘Julianists’ themselves, which might indeed have
led to Orthodox suspicion of Julianism on Justinian’s part, but also with the
so-called Nestorians of Persia. The question is complex, but seems to be open.
34
Justinian died childless on 14 November 565. The succession had been left
open. One of his three nephews, called Justin, who had long occupied the
minor post of cura palatii, but who was, perhaps more significantly, married
to Sophia, one of Theodora’s nieces, secured election by the Senate and suc-
ceeded his uncle. The only serious contender, a second cousin of Justinian’s
also called Justin, one of the magistri militum, was despatched to Alexandria
and murdered, it is said at the instigation of Sophia. Justin II continued (or
reinstated) Justinian’s policy of religious orthodoxy, though earlier he (or at
least his wife, Sophia) had inclined to Monophysitism. In renewing his uncle’s
religious policy, he restored religious harmony between East and West, and
affirmed this shared orthodoxy by the gift of a splendid enamelled crucifix
31
Patlagean (1977).
32
See, for example, J. Hatcher (1994), pp. 3–35.
33
Whittow (1996), pp. 66–8.
34
See the discussion in Grillmeier (1995), pp. 467–73.