Borge D. -The Book of Risk
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volatility and, 56, 59–60
strategic risk management
business risks, 103–104
financial activities, generally, 136–137
financial decision framework, 106–131, 178–179
financial risks, 104–105
responsibilities of, 103
subjectivity, 39
synthetic substances, 94–95
30-year bonds, 147–156, 159
time, significance of, 99
traditionalists, 45, 103
treasury bonds, 144
Truman, Harry, 45–46
Tversky, Amos, 85–86
uncertain events, 192
uncertainty
belief assessment and, 34
Page 244
uncertainty (cont.)
business risks and, 103–104
of future directions, 235
home insurance example, 215–216
nature of, 7–9, 48
types of, 35
volatility and, 48–56
underconfidence, 97
unfair odds, 40–42
U.S. Treasury bills (T-bills), 129
urn game
uncertainty illustration, 35–38
unfair odds, 40–41
utilitarians, 26
utility
defined, 17–18
expected, see expected utility
fundamental strategies, 73
implications of, generally, 20–22, 26, 31
life decisions and, 206, 210–211
psychological obstaclesn and, 98–99
strategic risk management, 107
utility curves, 17–18, 25, 39, 41–42, 108–111
value at risk (VaR), 106–115, 131, 143, 170–172
variable rate loan, 140
vision, 181
volatility
control and, 177–178
correlation, effect on, 60–61
future, 53, 55
historical, 53–54, 59
implications of, 48–52, 230–231
indicators of, 53–54
interest rates and, 151–153
market price and, 152–153
personality, 49, 51
pitfalls of, 52–53
weather
correlation illustration, 57
forecasts, 34
volatility illustration, 51–52
well-being, in life decisions, 200–202, 205
zealotry, 95–97