undermined by a combination of U.S. reluctance, not least from the mili-
tary leadership, and European weakness, but settlements were eventually
imposed in Bosnia in 1995, and in K osovo in 1999, at the expense of the
expansionism and ethnic aggression of a S erbian regime that unsuccess-
fully looked for Russian sponsorship. In 1998, the Strategic Defence Review
outlined an expeditionary military strategy, and, the following year, a
leading role was take n in the Kosovo Crisis. The Major government
(1990–1997) had been reluctant to act over Bosnia , but its Blair successor
played a m uch more acti ve, and moralistic, role over Ko sovo and then
tried to take the credit for the success. In practice, the eventual Serb with-
drawal may have owed more to a conviction, based in part on Russian
information, that a NATO land attack was imminent, as well as to the
withdrawal of Russian support, than to the air offensive that was
launched. However, French, German and, eventually, U.S. rejection of
British pressure for a land invasion indicated their doubts of its feasibility.
Indeed, a land attack faced a serious logistical challenge, and was depend-
ent on the willingness of neighboring countries to provide access and
bases. In this case, Greek opposition to pressure on Serbia was a major
hindrance. The Greek government had considerable sym pathy for Serbia,
in large part due to a pan-Orthodox hostility to the Muslims who lived in
Kosovo, but also to concern about revisionism, specifically the fear that an
independent Kosovo would contribute to Macedonian expansionism at
the expense of Greek control of areas that could be claimed by Macedonia.
George Robertson, the Secretary of State for Defence, publicly scorned
commentators wh o war ned about the difficulty of winning the Kosovo
conflict by air power alone, and also about the contrast between output
(bomb and missile dama ge) and outcome. The subsequent Serbian with-
drawal from Kosovo revealed, however, that NATO estimates of the
damage inflicted by air attack, for example to Serb tanks, had been consid-
erably exaggerated. Benefiting from the limitations of Alli ed intelligence
information and its serious consequences for Allied targeting, and from
the serious impact of the weather on air operations (a large number
canceled or affected), the Serbs, employing simple and inexpensive cam-
ouflage techniques that took advantage o f terrain and w ooded cover,
preserved most of their equipment desp ite 10,000 NATO strike sorties.
Furthermore, the air offensive had not prevented the contin uing large-
scale expulsion of Kosovans from their homes by the Serbs, and this ruth-
less ‘‘ethnic cleansing’’ badly compromi sed the success of the operation.
Indeed, Operation Horseshoe, the ethnic cleansing campaign, increased
as the air attack mounted. Furthermore, the report produced in 2000 by
the Nationa l Audit Office on British operations the previous year depicted
major problems with the RAF. On cloudy days, the planes were unable to
identify targets and were grounded which, ironically, prevented an exces-
sive depletion of bombs, to match that suffered by the Americans with
New Roles, 1968– 163